Disease Prediction
How the disease prediction engine works, what the risk scores mean, and where to find them
TurfWise calculates the risk of common turf diseases using your local weather data, grass type, and course profile. It gives each disease a percentage risk score and tells you whether you should monitor, take preventive action, or treat.
Disease prediction dashboard
This article refers to a live TurfWise screen. Media is omitted here so the written steps stay current across releases.
What this page does
The disease prediction engine takes current and forecast weather conditions -- temperature, humidity, leaf wetness, wind, rainfall -- and runs them through calibrated models for each tracked disease. It produces a risk score from 0 to 100% and an action level (None, Monitor, Preventive, or Curative).
You don't need to input anything. The system pulls weather data automatically and recalculates risk throughout the day.
When would you use this?
- First thing in the morning, to check whether overnight conditions have changed disease pressure
- Before deciding whether a preventive fungicide application is justified
- When planning work for the coming week and you need to know if disease risk is rising or falling
- After a period of mild, damp weather when you suspect conditions are favouring Fusarium
- When writing reports for the committee and you need to explain why a treatment was applied
Which diseases are tracked?
The engine models five diseases:
- Fusarium Patch (Microdochium nivale) -- the most common UK turf disease, favoured by cool damp conditions
- Red Thread (Laetisaria fuciformis) -- associated with low nitrogen and humid weather
- Take-All Patch (Gaeumannomyces graminis) -- linked to alkaline soils and poor drainage
- Anthracnose (Colletotrichum graminicola) -- driven by heat stress, compaction, and low mowing heights
- Dollar Spot (Clarireedia jacksonii) -- peaks in warm humid conditions with prolonged leaf wetness
Each disease has its own model with different weightings for temperature, humidity, moisture, and seasonal factors.
What the risk scores mean
Each disease gets a score from 0% to 100%. The higher the score, the more favourable current conditions are for that disease to develop.
| Risk Level | Score | What it means | |-----------|-------|---------------| | Low | 0--25% | Conditions are unfavourable. Routine monitoring is enough. | | Moderate | 25--50% | Conditions are becoming favourable. Consider cultural controls and increase observation. | | High | 50--70% | Significant disease pressure. Preventive action is recommended. | | Severe | 70--100% | Critical pressure. Disease is likely active or imminent. Curative treatment recommended. |
What drives the score?
Each model weighs several factors differently. For example, the Fusarium model places heavy emphasis on temperature (0--12°C range), humidity, and leaf wetness. The Dollar Spot model focuses on warm temperatures (15--30°C), prolonged leaf wetness, and thatch depth. You can see the contributing factors for each disease when you open its detail view.
What the action levels mean
Below each risk score, you'll see an action level. This is a recommendation, not an instruction.
- None (Low risk) -- No specific action needed. Continue routine monitoring.
- Monitor (Moderate risk) -- Increase how often you're checking affected areas. Think about cultural controls like improving airflow, adjusting mowing height, or switching dew.
- Preventive (High risk) -- Consider a preventive fungicide application. Check the Spray Decision Calculator for timing.
- Curative (Severe risk) -- Disease is likely active. A curative treatment is recommended. Record any application in the Spray Logger.
Always use your own judgement
Risk scores are based on weather data and models. They do not know about your recent spray history, staff availability, competition schedule, or what you saw when you walked the course this morning. Use them alongside your own experience, not instead of it.
How to use disease prediction
Check the Disease tab in the AI Hub
Go to AI Hub at /ai and click the Disease tab. You'll see risk cards for all five tracked diseases with their current percentage and a colour-coded progress bar.
Review each score and confidence level
Each card shows two numbers: the risk percentage and the confidence percentage. Risk tells you how much pressure there is. Confidence tells you how reliable the model's calculation is, given the data available.
Click a disease card for detail
Clicking any disease card opens a detail panel showing the full risk breakdown, contributing factors, and a 7-day forecast trend. This is where you can see exactly what is driving the score up or down.
Decide and act
If the action level says Preventive or Curative, check the Spray Decision Calculator for spray window suitability. Then log any applications in the Spray Logger.
Where disease data appears
Disease prediction data shows up in several places across TurfWise:
- Today page -- A 7-day disease forecast chart showing Fusarium, Dollar Spot, and Anthracnose trends at a glance
- AI Hub > Disease tab at
/ai-- Full risk cards for all five diseases with detail panels - Course > Disease & Stress at
/management/disease-tracking-- Disease observation logging, history charts, and prediction records
The Today page chart gives you a quick morning overview. The AI Hub Disease tab gives you the full picture. The Disease & Stress page is where you log what you actually see on the course.
Understanding the 7-day forecast
Each disease card in the AI Hub can show a 7-day forecast line. This tells you whether risk is expected to rise or fall over the coming days based on the weather forecast.
Use this for planning. If Fusarium risk is moderate today but forecast to hit high by Thursday, you might decide to apply a preventive treatment on Tuesday rather than waiting.
Forecasts beyond 3 days
Weather forecasts become less reliable after 3 days. Take the later days of the disease forecast as a general trend, not a precise prediction.
Common problems and fixes
- "All scores show 0% or very low" -- This usually means weather data is not being fetched. Check that your weather integration is set up in Settings > Weather. If the weather service is down temporarily, scores will be stale until it reconnects.
- "The score seems too high/too low for what I can see" -- The models use weather data, not visual observation. If you can see disease that the model is rating as low risk, trust your eyes. The model might be missing local microclimate factors. Log your observation in Disease & Stress so there is a record.
- "Confidence is low" -- This usually means the model doesn't have complete data for all its inputs (for example, missing leaf wetness hours or soil temperature). The score is still calculated but should be treated as approximate.
- "I don't see Brown Patch" -- The system tracks five diseases in the UI. Brown Patch is modelled internally but is not displayed as a separate card.
Good habits
- Check disease risk first thing in the morning, before making work decisions. Overnight conditions often shift risk levels.
- Don't wait for "Severe" to act. By the time the score hits 70%+, the disease may already be active. A "High" score with a rising trend is the point to consider preventive action.
- Log observations in Disease & Stress whenever you spot symptoms, even minor ones. This builds a history that helps you spot patterns year on year.
- Cross-reference disease risk with spray window suitability. There's no point knowing you need to spray if conditions won't allow it for three days.
- When writing committee reports, reference the risk scores from TurfWise to explain treatment decisions. It shows due diligence.
Where this fits in TurfWise
Disease prediction feeds into several other parts of the system:
- The Today page shows a summary disease forecast so you can spot developing pressure at a glance
- The AI Hub shows the full detail with all five diseases
- The AI Advisor (AI Hub > Assist tab) can answer questions about current disease risk and recommended actions
- The Spray Decision Calculator helps you assess whether conditions are right to apply treatment
If you log observations in Disease & Stress and treatments in the Spray Logger, you build a complete audit trail from prediction through to action.
Where to find it
- Quick overview: Today page (7-day disease forecast chart)
- Full disease cards: AI Hub at
/ai> Disease tab - Observation logging: Course > Disease & Stress at
/management/disease-tracking